Commodities
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
SILVER
SILVER IN INR:
SUPPPORTS LEVELS TO WATCHOUT FOR SHORT TERM:
Silver closed @44195 levels on 16.04.2013. It made a low of 42753 levels yesterday. It was in falling momentum from peak of 65723 levels on 13.09.2012.We have seen very sharp fall in last 3-4 trading session. It’s also trading nearer to crucial support levels. It has strong support @ 41280 levels in short term as per chart attached, able to hold this support zone will lead to temporary some kind of relief rally/Pull back rally or consolidation (Cooling off) in short term. Daily Positive close will be an advance confirmation for the same. One has to watch out its behavior at this crucial stage near support levels.
Break of these levels will lead to further sharp fall till tgt1-40000 to 39500 levels (i.e. 20 Quarterly moving Avg.) in short term as per chart attached, so far not broken at all.
40000-39000 levels are long to medium term support. One has watch out its behavior around this level for further outlook.
Medium to Long term Wave Count:
Both wave counts (bullish/bearish) is possible & still open as per chart attached.
Bullish Wave Count:
If Bullish count, then it’s in wave-IV correction. Overleap with wave-I (i.e. - 27500 levels or close below 57864 levels on calendar year closing ( Dec-2013) will discard this count till that it’s still open & wave-V UP can start after completion of this correction. Then, this correction will become buying opportunity for higher levels target for medium to long term perspective & recent fall can be also counted as ABC decline from peak so far as per chart attached. But this confirmation is still has a long to way to go. One has to wait either levels wise or Time wise to arrive at final conclusion on it.
Bearish Wave Count:
If Bearish Count, then silver completed ABC Rally as per chart attached at high of 65723 levels on 13.09.2012. Wave-C of V is being ended as Triangle Top as per chart attached. & we are heading for Bear market is silver for significant lower levels targets for medium to long tern perspective.
By looking both counts, still it’s not conclusive to take final call from wave count perspective at current levels, will wait for further evidences for reaching final conclusion for the same.
But looking at momentum of weekly & Monthly degree both are in sell. Medium term to long term trend is down. So it’s advisable & my preferred view to go with momentum at current levels of market till we get any sign of Revival & Precious metal as an Asset class ( both Gold & Silver) may under perform in medium to Long term for Investment perspective till its proven others wise.
My analysis for both precious metals (Gold & Silver) in INR terms & same things may defer in USD terms due to many other factors. One needs to keep this in mind to arrive final conclusion for the same.
SUPPPORTS LEVELS TO WATCHOUT FOR SHORT TERM:
Break of these levels will lead to further sharp fall till tgt1-40000 to 39500 levels (i.e. 20 Quarterly moving Avg.) in short term as per chart attached, so far not broken at all.
40000-39000 levels are long to medium term support. One has watch out its behavior around this level for further outlook.
Medium to Long term Wave Count:
Both wave counts (bullish/bearish) is possible & still open as per chart attached.
Bullish Wave Count:
If Bullish count, then it’s in wave-IV correction. Overleap with wave-I (i.e. - 27500 levels or close below 57864 levels on calendar year closing ( Dec-2013) will discard this count till that it’s still open & wave-V UP can start after completion of this correction. Then, this correction will become buying opportunity for higher levels target for medium to long term perspective & recent fall can be also counted as ABC decline from peak so far as per chart attached. But this confirmation is still has a long to way to go. One has to wait either levels wise or Time wise to arrive at final conclusion on it.
Bearish Wave Count:
If Bearish Count, then silver completed ABC Rally as per chart attached at high of 65723 levels on 13.09.2012. Wave-C of V is being ended as Triangle Top as per chart attached. & we are heading for Bear market is silver for significant lower levels targets for medium to long tern perspective.
By looking both counts, still it’s not conclusive to take final call from wave count perspective at current levels, will wait for further evidences for reaching final conclusion for the same.
But looking at momentum of weekly & Monthly degree both are in sell. Medium term to long term trend is down. So it’s advisable & my preferred view to go with momentum at current levels of market till we get any sign of Revival & Precious metal as an Asset class ( both Gold & Silver) may under perform in medium to Long term for Investment perspective till its proven others wise.
My analysis for both precious metals (Gold & Silver) in INR terms & same things may defer in USD terms due to many other factors. One needs to keep this in mind to arrive final conclusion for the same.