Currencies
Monday, July 08, 2013
Rupee
RUPEE: (TRAIL IT TILL REVERSES-IV)
FEAR & GREED BOTH (BATTLE OF EMOTIONS STAGE):
Trading at very crucial zone with high volatility
Rupee closed at $60.21 levels on 05.07.2013. It has surpassed the recent high of 60.76 levels & made a fresh all time high of $ 61.20 levels in the morning trade today. It has given UP early gains of morning trade & closed at $60.62 levels at the end of trading session. It has depreciated more than 10% in a time frame of around one & half months span. It was the very sharp deprecation I have seen in the history of Rupee.
Its daily KST is still in sell & its showing 3rd negative divergence. RSI is also showing negative divergence as per chart attached. It interprets lost of momentum in this stretchable move. Its warning sign for short term & indicates last move before short term TOP established.
But final fact is price i.e. still not reacting or showing correction or reversal
One needs to closely watch out Rupee behavior at this crucial zone.
As suggested earlier write up of rupee on 28.06.2013 below to trail partially balance quantity for higher levels targets. One can now keep (Trail) SL-$59.90 levels in short term. Volatility to continue further till it trades in this tight range of $59.90 to $61. Sustain at either of side will only lead to further trend with momentum in short term.
It still looks like expanding flat or wedge kind of possibility from wave count perspective. The recent rise from $58.95 levels till date is showing corrective waves, not an impulse. Therefore, it’s not giving me confidence to call wave-III or C beginning. If its impulse then also, if ignore Hourly charts, I will call it as an extension legs of preceding move started from $55.59 levels that can go till $63 levels in short term in a very bullish scenario but its not my preferred one.
$61.50-$62 is crucial resistance to watch out for further confirmation of recent move for higher levels targets as per chart attached. Close below $ 59.90 levels will finally confirm short term reversal & we may see lower levels targets till $ 58.60 to $ 58 in short term.
But till that once again reiterating the best strategy to Trail it till reverses in this battle of Emotions stage
One should Trail SL levels to $56.30 levels from medium term perspective.
FEAR & GREED BOTH (BATTLE OF EMOTIONS STAGE):
Trading at very crucial zone with high volatility
Its daily KST is still in sell & its showing 3rd negative divergence. RSI is also showing negative divergence as per chart attached. It interprets lost of momentum in this stretchable move. Its warning sign for short term & indicates last move before short term TOP established.
But final fact is price i.e. still not reacting or showing correction or reversal
One needs to closely watch out Rupee behavior at this crucial zone.
As suggested earlier write up of rupee on 28.06.2013 below to trail partially balance quantity for higher levels targets. One can now keep (Trail) SL-$59.90 levels in short term. Volatility to continue further till it trades in this tight range of $59.90 to $61. Sustain at either of side will only lead to further trend with momentum in short term.
It still looks like expanding flat or wedge kind of possibility from wave count perspective. The recent rise from $58.95 levels till date is showing corrective waves, not an impulse. Therefore, it’s not giving me confidence to call wave-III or C beginning. If its impulse then also, if ignore Hourly charts, I will call it as an extension legs of preceding move started from $55.59 levels that can go till $63 levels in short term in a very bullish scenario but its not my preferred one.
$61.50-$62 is crucial resistance to watch out for further confirmation of recent move for higher levels targets as per chart attached. Close below $ 59.90 levels will finally confirm short term reversal & we may see lower levels targets till $ 58.60 to $ 58 in short term.
But till that once again reiterating the best strategy to Trail it till reverses in this battle of Emotions stage
One should Trail SL levels to $56.30 levels from medium term perspective.
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