Currencies
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Rupee
RUPEE:(Triangle Breakout on Upside)
RUPPE WILL DEPRECIATE AGAINST USD IN SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM:
Rupee closed @$55.59 on 23.05.2013. It has finally given breakout on Upside from range bound movement of last 6 months. It has formed bullish Triangle kind of pattern (Accumulation) in this long consolidation period as per chart attached. I was waiting for Price wise confirmation of breakout at either of side as written in my last Update of Rupee on 11.03.2013.
Its daily & weekly momentum indicators both are in BUY supporting UP Trend. Monthly momentum indicators (KST & MACD) both are still in sell raised doubt about it. But finally one should follow Price reversal & break out on upside confirming UP trend. It has taken support around 20 MSMA as per chart attached.
If this Triangle breakout is real then it should not come again into this price territory (ie.-$54 levels) & we will see Trending move in Rupee in short to medium term. Risk reward is favorable to go long at current levels from both short to medium term perspective.
One can go long USDINR with SL-$54.50 for the target of $57.32 in short term.
& Keep SL-$54 for medium term perspective for the target of $63 in medium term.
Explanatory Note:
I was also reluctant to write this medium term targets on Rupee (i.e-$63), but finally I written by keeping in mind two things, first one is Risk Reward (i.e. - SL-$54 & another one is, Equality targets if it’s real breakout.
& If this Triangle breakout fails then it will become bull trap & we are heading for lower levels that also can’t ruled out, but at current levels momentum is also supporting bullish view expect for monthly degree.
Let see how it unfolds after triangle breakout, if it’s real one.
I have also seen such kind of Triangle breakouts failure on equity market recently therefore, one has to closely watch out sustainability of it above breakout levels to deal with overall view.
RUPPE WILL DEPRECIATE AGAINST USD IN SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM:
Its daily & weekly momentum indicators both are in BUY supporting UP Trend. Monthly momentum indicators (KST & MACD) both are still in sell raised doubt about it. But finally one should follow Price reversal & break out on upside confirming UP trend. It has taken support around 20 MSMA as per chart attached.
If this Triangle breakout is real then it should not come again into this price territory (ie.-$54 levels) & we will see Trending move in Rupee in short to medium term. Risk reward is favorable to go long at current levels from both short to medium term perspective.
One can go long USDINR with SL-$54.50 for the target of $57.32 in short term.
& Keep SL-$54 for medium term perspective for the target of $63 in medium term.
Explanatory Note:
I was also reluctant to write this medium term targets on Rupee (i.e-$63), but finally I written by keeping in mind two things, first one is Risk Reward (i.e. - SL-$54 & another one is, Equality targets if it’s real breakout.
& If this Triangle breakout fails then it will become bull trap & we are heading for lower levels that also can’t ruled out, but at current levels momentum is also supporting bullish view expect for monthly degree.
Let see how it unfolds after triangle breakout, if it’s real one.
I have also seen such kind of Triangle breakouts failure on equity market recently therefore, one has to closely watch out sustainability of it above breakout levels to deal with overall view.
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