Currencies

RUPEE:
(USD/INR):
WAVE-V of C beginning towards medium term targets:
At the edge of breakout from last 3 months consolidation thin range:


RUPEE Closed @$62.66 on 24.01.2014. It consolidated in the range of $61-$64 from last 3 months. Although I anticipated beginning of wave-V of C upward rally towards medium term targets on my earlier view of 7 November, 2013 as below but it didn’t move & traded in thin range for last 3 months. It still managed to hold support/ reversal level of $61 as per overall view.

Short term evidences further turned in to BUY mode & it looks like now its beginning of final UP ward rally towards medium term targets. Daily KST momentum indicators are in BUY & it also closed above 20DMA at the end of trading session pointing trend reversal.

The last evidence that’s what I am watching out i.e. Price confirmation to finally conclude, end of this last 3 months range bound move.

$62.80- 63.08 is final resistance level to watch out for as per chart attached to conclude short term trend reversal. Sustain above these levels i.e. ($63.08) will lead to rally towards $68-$70 in medium term. $60 is support/Reversal levels for short term for BULLS.

Fail to sustain above $63.08 levels in short term lead to possibility of one more last & final attempt on downside for the target of $60.80 in short term.

$58.69 is medium term support/reversal level in USD/INR & I would advice to be long in USD/INR irrespective of short term volatility & have a positional view on it for medium term higher level targets. Risk reward is favorable to BUY it at current level of market from medium term perspectives.

Conclusively, Rupee is going to depreciate against USD from medium term perspectives.