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The views expressed are based purely on Technical studies. The calls made herein are for information purpose only. The information and views presented here are prepared by Devang Shah.The information contained herein is based on my analysis of the Charts. I, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and I am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The Investment discussed & recommended on this website may not be suitable for all. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent Views, as they believe necessary.
While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned on this website, investors may please note that neither Devang Shah nor any person connected with him accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned herein. I may hold long or short positions in the securities/commodities discussed herein from time to time. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities/commodities, or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities/commodities.

Indices

Thursday, APRIL 09, 2020

INDICES:


ITS NOT LATE THAN TOO LATE:

WAVE-2 Correction of super cycle degree of BULL Market.

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We have seen sharp fall in Indian equity market in March 2020. Such Kind of sharp ferocious magnitude of fall (Speed wise) we have not seen in the history of Indian Stock Market. It made many people & fund manager surprised including me as well. Many people are comparing it with 2008 Bear Market but according to me it's much worse then it.
We are witnessing wave-2 bear market correction of last 12 years super cycle degree of bull market started from 2008 as per chart attached. In such scenario, 2020 will be washout year for equity market. We may spend time wise correction & price wise correction till 6800-6300 levels on nifty.
We have also broken trend line of sensex started from 1978 as per chart other attached but I am not taking case of end of Indian equity bull market started from 1978 levels so far as per alternate scenario as per chart attached & not want to be too bearish unless we break 6300 levels on nifty.
Although Midcap & Small cap indices have TOP out on Jan 2018 & we have seen good correction in these segments in last 2 years but unfortunately these correction was not turned out to be buying opportunity because main indices nifty/Sensex/Bank nifty/ BSE 500/200/100 have now top out after end of two year distribution at higher levels. And we have seen further sharp selling pressure in broader market in March 2020 which made alert many medium to long term smart investors for their portfolios.
I am expecting further more selling pressure in blue chips stocks which are darling of these bull markets. One should use any kind of small or larger bounce to exit & sell till medium term reverses.
One should not try to bottom fish till we get confirmation of medium term trend reversal. It will give us time for Investment opportunity for medium to long term perspectives.
Trader should strictly follow stop loss levels, if playing any bounce back rally. It looks like "U" Shape Economic Recovery to me as we have completed 12 years of super cycle degree unless becomes "W" as an alternate case not preferred one of now as of now. So it may take at least 1.5-2 years to come back economy on track based of historical bear markets.

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