Indices
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
INDICES:
BE ALERT: ITS BEGINING WORSE IS STILL AHEAD
SLIPY ROAD AHEAD!!!!
2012 was entire trending year on Upside. Sensex made a high of 20203.66 & Nifty made a high of 6111.80 levels on 29\01\2013. It has both achieved targets as expected.
Then after, Market started to correct from these levels & made a recent low of 5663.60on nifty & 18760.41 on sensex 04.03.2013. Fall from TOP can be counted as Impulsive. Many stocks & Indices including broader Indices (like-Nifty/Sesnex) were also Showing Impulsive fall from TOP. All Other Indices (like- Midcap, Small cap) & many stocks of these Indices have seen very sharp fall from its Peak levels.
From wave count perspective, Bullish count is still open because market started pull back rally very close from my medium term reversal levels as mentioned i.e.- 5629 on nifty & 18520 on sensex ( Overleap levels) as per chart attached & it got saved so far. But by looking at stock structures, other Indices Structures (like-BSE MIDCAP, NSE MIDCAP, BSE SMALLCAP etc) & current momentum, its time to be cautious at current levels of market.
I though a lot before writing this mail & changing my medium term view that I have not changed till now but one thing that caught me to think “ Its Beginning Worse is still ahead ” was BSE500 Indices. This Index is mirror image of NIFTY/Sensex broader indices. It got overleap is similar kind of structure that I was looking on NIFTY/SENSEX as per chart attached. In that sense The Rise of 2012 completing ABC corrective Pullback at 78.6% retracement at recent highs as mentioned above. So Bullish Impulsive count marked earlier that states wave-V UP is pending for the target of 6350 levels on nifty & 21200 levels on sensex is now ruling out till it’s proven otherwise as per chart attached.
Momentum indicators weekly KST/MACD both is in sell across all Indices supporting medium term down trend view.
5970-5990-6020 is first crucial hurdle Resistance zone on nifty & on sensex front that comes around 19768-19900 range. These are crucial resistance levels to watch out for short term.
Medium term trend remains down from now. It requires further more confirmation to change it, alien with reversal levels, as majority readings that I mentioned above pointing Bearish Trend. 6111 on nifty & 20204 on sensex are reversal levels from medium term perspective.
We will see series of four possible lower levels targets range i.e. - tgt1-18250-tgt2-17700- tgt3-16900- tgt4-15750 on sensex & tgt1-5550- tgt2-5350- tgt3-5150- tgt4-4770 levels on nifty respectively in next 3-4 quarters till that one should be very cautious at every higher level & Follow Trend & be very Stock specific in this kind of Down trend market.
Risk Reward is very much favorable for Bears at current levels of market. Intermediate supports will only act as temporary support zone for any kind of pull back rally in this Trend till it completely reverses.
Investor should wait for lower levels for better stock specific Investment opportunities & Value Buying.