Indices
Friday, January 24, 2014
INDICES: INDICES:
IF NOT NOW THAN NEVER:
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But if you see this rally, its mainly driven by selected few stocks of main index & Dominated by IT sector therefore, its not healthy rally & its not good sign for Bulls & it happens esp. during bear market in which last rally esp. upward is not turn out to be very strong.
As I anticipated tgt1-6420 levels & tgt2-6530 levels for this rally but broader market & stocks are already showing weakness ahead of a market & also not participated in this pull back rally as well. Its indirectly indicates trend reversal ahead of a main index (NIFTY/SENSEX) to confirm. It results in to possibility of truncation of final wave-E of C of Z, it may not achieve till its final targets & in anyways I am not expecting beginning of New BULL RUN from here on till get further confirmation.
There are 2 Possible at current levels of market
BULLISH:
(RUNNING TRIANGLE):
If its bullish running triangle as per chart attached ( yellow line) then market will take support in the range of 6189-6139 levels & we will see very strong continuation of bull run from here on i.e. wave-III for the target of 7200 levels on nifty on upside.
BEARISH:
(DISTRIBUTIVE WEDGE):
If its bearish wedge as per chart attached (Green line) then market will trend towards short to medium term targets of tgt1-6420 & tgt2-6530 (i.e. Touch line) as per chart attached. Close below 6234 levels on nifty & 21000 levels on sensex finally invalidate bullish view & will assume wave-E truncation in final upward rally to conclude short term reversal & further going ahead break of 6189-6139 levels will finally conclude end of this 4 months distributive pattern & final confirmation to break this range on down side. We can expect target1-5970 & tgt2-5700 levels in medium term.
As anticipated for currency (USD/INR), it hold support of $60-$61& consolidated well in this rang & likely chance of beginning wave-V Upward rally now for the target in the range of $68 to $70 as per view mentioned on currency column on 07.11.2013. Rupee depreciation will put additional pressure on market.
So by looking at overall trend & other all observations, my preferred one in BEARISH OPTION & expecting this range to break on down side sooner or latter for lower levels targets as mentioned above.
Therefore, one should be cautious at current levels of market. One should book gains & be light & stock specific on long side & start to initiate stock specific short positions, once market confirms short term reversal .So Precisely, I can say in other words that “IF NOT NOW THAN NEVER”.