Indices
Thursday, December 31, 2015
INDICES:INDICES:
BUY BUY 2015: A GOOD OPPORTUNUTY FOR FRESH INVESTMENT ONCE AGAIN FOR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM PERSPECTIVES:
CALENDER YEAR ANALYSIS:
With 2015 ended as negative calendar year, Sensex & Nifty has completed 3 years rally from low of 15135.86 levels & 4531.15 levels respectively (i.e. December 2011 Lows) to high of 30,024.74 levels on sensex & 9119.20 levels on nifty in March 2015.
As anticipated around January 2014 about Beginning of Bull Market, It has completed first phase of Bull Run at all time high levels as mentioned above. One again reiterating same thing as I mentioned earlier, “ITS JUST TRAILER, PICTURE IS STILL INCOMPLETE” or in other words, “ITS JUST BEGINNING, IT HAS LONG WAY TO GO AHEAD”
From wave count perspectives, it looks like wave-(I) of III of 3 ended at all time high in March 2015. We are in wave-(II) of III of 3 corrections from last 3 quarters since March 2015. It may be ended at recent lows of 7551.03 levels on nifty & 24,867.73 levels on sensex so far in December 2015. Sustain above medium term reversal i.e. 8336 levels on nifty & 27,618.14 levels on sensex will finally confirm end of Wave-(II) of III of 3 correction at December 2015 lows & we are heading towards further all time higher levels targets in the range of 12650-14900 levels on nifty & 41700-48400 level on sensex over medium to long term. Failed to confirm medium term reversal will lead to extension of this wave-(II) of III of 3 corrections for further lower levels targets as per market outlook column towards 23700-22800 levels on sensex & 7250-6950 levels on nifty before Wave-(III) of III of 3 up trend resumes. One should watch out medium term reversal to conclude the same. Whether wave-(II) of III of 3 is completed or not but this correction is a very good opportunity to BUY stock specific or in SIP way for Investment perspectives because anyway market has to go higher levels targets as mentioned above in medium to long term.
Many people calling it as Mother of All Bull market in media, I do agree with it. According to me, it’s all together Fresh Bull market as per sensex monthly chart attached from wave count perspectives. It’s going to last Time wise more period of time, may be at least for a Decade. In between we may get time or price wise corrections but conclusively it will eventually rally towards higher levels targets as mentioned above. We may get mass participation from majority of stocks in wave-(III) of III of 3 rallies. And Midcap & Small cap stocks & Indices are going to tremendously out perform from here on in rally ahead. “Indian Equity” as an Asset class is going to outperform further in medium to long term as an Investment Avenue. My forecasting is based purely on Indian Indices (Sensex/Nifty) from long term wave count perspectives. This is going to be much strong, Powerful & Healthier Long Bull Market. Apart from technical Analysis, Supportively, we also perceive slow but steady structural changes in political & economical development of the country.
BSE BANKEX closed 19,328.74 levels on 31.12.2015. It closed negatively in calendar year 2015 as per chart attached. It has started rally from 9535.75 levels around august 2013 & made all time high of 23,903.82 levels around January 2015. As 2015 ended as negative calendar year, BSE BANKEX completed wave-(I) of III of 3 at all time high as per chart attached. It started wave-II correction. It has made a low of so far 18009 levels around September 2015 levels.
It may have ended wave-II correction or not, it’s still not conclusive at current levels. 20,593 are crucial resistance levels to watch out for short term, Sustain above these levels will confirm further rally towards higher levels targets for wave-(III) of III of 3 in the range of 39700-43000 levels in medium to long term.
Failed to sustain at higher levels, will lead to extension of this wave-(II) of III of 3 corrections for further lower levels targets in the range of 16400-15600 levels as per chart attached before Wave-(III) of III of 3 up trend resumes.
MIDCAP & SMALL CAP INDICES are outperforming compare to Nifty/ Sensex in last one Year in this correction. It looks like impulsive wave structure Rise on these indices from their August 2013 lows. Then after, these all indices consolidating in same range from last 12-19 Months as per chart attached. It looks like wave-II consolidation as per chart attached on these indices. This looks like Time wise correction rather price wise correction on these indices, if we compare with main indices sensex & Nifty which are already corrected so far around 15%-16% from their all time high levels.
NSE MIDCAP & BSE SMALL CAP Indices have still not surpassed it 2008 all time high, it shows big divergence with main index (Nifty/sensex) which are far above their 2008 peak levels. It means that if my view goes correct then, there is lot of room for upside particularly in these indices & Stocks of these segments.
Midcap & Small cap is going to out perform wave-III up in the rally ahead as per chart attached. One should look out opportunity to BUY stocks from these segments in this time wise correction.
I normally avoid bottom fishing strategy for Investment in stocks but if we are in wave-(III) of III of 3, in which normally, we get mass participation from stocks. Then it can also play out well. But one should also look in to company’s fundamentals & restructuring strategy before such kind of investment decision.
Few stocks Looks good to me to BUY at current levels or systematically in any kind of further decline in this correction in portfolio from Investment Perspectives are as follows which has still up side pending for higher level targets. One can BUY
Wave Stocks- (Available in Correction)
SIEMENS, AXIS BANK, BHARAT FORGE, CROMPTION GRAVES, DISH TV, PETRONET LNG, RELIANCE, ADANIPORT, TECH MAH, HDFC BANK & HDFC LTD, APOLLO TYRE ETC
(Bottom Fishing Stocks)
TATA STEEL, RCOM
List is still big but I prefer to recommend few stocks as far as Portfolio management strategy is concerned, will also put “Value wave Investment Ideas” in periodical Intervals.
21108 levels on sensex & 6338 levels on nifty are strong support/reversal levels for this view.
Therefore, conclusively, this correction is a very good opportunity to BUY for investment perspectives. One can BUY stock specific at current levels or any kind of further decline. One can also look to BUY Outperforming stocks available in these corrections.
And Lastly, I would say that “If We Miss it this time, we repent forever….”