Market Outlook
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 01, 2020
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 01.10.2020
Market closed in positive territory at 38,697.05 (+ 629.12)
CONCLUDING SHORT TERM REVERSAL: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
DERIVATIVE DATA OF LOW ROLL OVER INDICTINNG POSSIBILITY OF PULL BACK RALLY TO EXTEND FURTHER IN SHORT TERM:
LOOKS LIKE “W ” SHAPE DOUBLE DIP RECOVERY OR PULL BACK RALLY:
END OF ABC PULL BACK RALLY ??OR END OF WAVE-IV CORRECTION ??, WAIT FOR MEDIUM TERM REVERSAL FOR FINAL CONCLUSION:
Market managed to close above short term reversal levels at the end of trading session. It also closed weekly in positive territory. It made a high of 11428.60 levels on nifty & 38738.89 levels at the end of trading session. It looks like possibility of further extension of rally for higher levels targets as mentioned below till short term reverses. One should look to BUY stock specific at current levels or any kind of decline or consolidation till short term reverses.
Market closed monthly in negative territory. So, It can be high possibility of End of ABC Pullback rally as per over all original view from March 2020. But by looking at derivative open interest positioning which is very light keeping optional of bullish view as an alternate at current levels of market but subject to conclusion of medium term reversal.
BANK NIFTY closed weekly in positive territory. It also looks like possibility of extension of pull back rally in short term till it reverses. 21000 levels is strong support/reversal for short term, till it holds one can expect pull back rally to extend towards 23300-24000 levels in short term. 27000 levels is medium term reversal levels for Bank nifty, till it holds one can expect lower levels targets till 17000/16000 levels in medium term. Overall wave count is not conclusive or impressive for bank nifty at current levels of market. It has managed to find support at lower end of channel as per chart attached. It technically looks very good bullish structure as a copy book parallel channel for medium term perspectives as an alternate. Will closely watch out & review it in coming trading sessions to reach final conclusion. Close below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp sell off towards 20500-19500 levels on bank nifty in short term.
11000 & 11500 levels is crucial support & Resistance levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series. Though Derivative open interest data is very low indicating high probability of pull back rally from such kind of light open interest.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in BUY supporting short term trend. One should be stock specific & follow trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses in short term. Close above short term reversal levels will lead to sharp sell off towards lower levels targets of 10800/10550 levels on nifty & 36495-35877 levels on sensex in short term.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both are in SELL. Market is still closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. One should wait for price reversal to finally conclude medium term reversal.
Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is DOWN.
Trend
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 01.10.2020
Market closed in positive territory at 38,697.05 (+ 629.12)CONCLUDING SHORT TERM REVERSAL: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
DERIVATIVE DATA OF LOW ROLL OVER INDICTINNG POSSIBILITY OF PULL BACK RALLY TO EXTEND FURTHER IN SHORT TERM:
LOOKS LIKE “W ” SHAPE DOUBLE DIP RECOVERY OR PULL BACK RALLY:
END OF ABC PULL BACK RALLY ??OR END OF WAVE-IV CORRECTION ??, WAIT FOR MEDIUM TERM REVERSAL FOR FINAL CONCLUSION:
Market closed monthly in negative territory. So, It can be high possibility of End of ABC Pullback rally as per over all original view from March 2020. But by looking at derivative open interest positioning which is very light keeping optional of bullish view as an alternate at current levels of market but subject to conclusion of medium term reversal.
BANK NIFTY closed weekly in positive territory. It also looks like possibility of extension of pull back rally in short term till it reverses. 21000 levels is strong support/reversal for short term, till it holds one can expect pull back rally to extend towards 23300-24000 levels in short term. 27000 levels is medium term reversal levels for Bank nifty, till it holds one can expect lower levels targets till 17000/16000 levels in medium term. Overall wave count is not conclusive or impressive for bank nifty at current levels of market. It has managed to find support at lower end of channel as per chart attached. It technically looks very good bullish structure as a copy book parallel channel for medium term perspectives as an alternate. Will closely watch out & review it in coming trading sessions to reach final conclusion. Close below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp sell off towards 20500-19500 levels on bank nifty in short term.
11000 & 11500 levels is crucial support & Resistance levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series. Though Derivative open interest data is very low indicating high probability of pull back rally from such kind of light open interest.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in BUY supporting short term trend. One should be stock specific & follow trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses in short term. Close above short term reversal levels will lead to sharp sell off towards lower levels targets of 10800/10550 levels on nifty & 36495-35877 levels on sensex in short term.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both are in SELL. Market is still closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. One should wait for price reversal to finally conclude medium term reversal.Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is DOWN.
Trend
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 39360/40000 |  | 37544 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 32350-29968-27500 |  | 40006 |
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 11600/11800 | | 11100 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 9500-8800-8000 | | 11800 |