Market Outlook
FRIDAY, MAY 04, 2018
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 04.05.2018
Market closed in negative territory at 34,915.38 (- 187.76)
FIRST WEEKLY NEGATIVE CLOSE AFTER IMPULSIVE RALLY FROM BOTTOM:
EXPECTING TIME WISE CONSOLIDATION RATHER PRICE WISE CORRECTION IN THIS WAVE-II OF 5 PHASE OF MARKET WITH HIGH VOLATALITY AHEAD OF MAJOR EVENTS THIS MONTH:
ANY KIND OF SHORT TERM CONSOLIDATION OR DECLINE IS STOCK SPECIFIC BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES:TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
Market closed first weekly negative close after five concecutive week of positive rally from bottom. It made a high of 10784.65 levels on nifty & 35,357.15 levels on sensex so far. It looks like wave-(I) of 5 completion with weekly negative close as per chart attached & one can expect wave-II correction or consolidation before wave-(III) of 5 begins. It looks time wise consolidation rather price wise correction in this wave-II phase of market as per my preffered view. Any kind of decline or short term consolidation is stock specific buying opportunity till short term reverses & One can expect higher levels targets as mentioend below in short to medium term.
BANK NIFTY also closed 2nd concecuitve week in positive territory. It has outperformed during this week as well. It made a high of 25,753.70 levels so far in this rally.It can be also possiblr to count end of Wave-I of (5) impulsive rally from recent bottom from wave count persepctives as per chart attached. One can expect higher levels targets around 26600 levels till it holds crucial support of 24700 levels in short term & further above 29600-30000 levels in medium term. Any kind of decline is also buying opportunity for bank nifty for short to medium term perspectives.
10500 & 11000 levels is strong support & resistance levels range respectively based on option open interest data so far for current month series. Market will remain very volatile ahead of Result season this month. By looking at current structure, I feel market is going to surpass all time high soon on main indices & this rally will have time wise consolidation rather than price wise correction in short term. Any kind of such short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till medium term reverses.
Momentum indicators Daily KST went in to SELL but daily MACD is still in BUY supporting short term trend . Market will remain volatile ahead of state election results this month. One should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses. Close below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp correction till 9950-9800 levels on nifty & 32400-31800 levels on sensex in short term.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both went in to SELL & also closed below 20 WSMA. Its trading above 40 WEMA . Medium term Parameters are showing weakness but one need to watch out price confirmation to conclude medium term reversal till that One can expect market to trend towards higher level targets in medium term. Any kind of short term correction or consolidation in buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till it reverses.
Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is UP.
Trend
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 04.05.2018
Market closed in negative territory at 34,915.38 (- 187.76)FIRST WEEKLY NEGATIVE CLOSE AFTER IMPULSIVE RALLY FROM BOTTOM:
EXPECTING TIME WISE CONSOLIDATION RATHER PRICE WISE CORRECTION IN THIS WAVE-II OF 5 PHASE OF MARKET WITH HIGH VOLATALITY AHEAD OF MAJOR EVENTS THIS MONTH:
ANY KIND OF SHORT TERM CONSOLIDATION OR DECLINE IS STOCK SPECIFIC BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES:TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
BANK NIFTY also closed 2nd concecuitve week in positive territory. It has outperformed during this week as well. It made a high of 25,753.70 levels so far in this rally.It can be also possiblr to count end of Wave-I of (5) impulsive rally from recent bottom from wave count persepctives as per chart attached. One can expect higher levels targets around 26600 levels till it holds crucial support of 24700 levels in short term & further above 29600-30000 levels in medium term. Any kind of decline is also buying opportunity for bank nifty for short to medium term perspectives.
10500 & 11000 levels is strong support & resistance levels range respectively based on option open interest data so far for current month series. Market will remain very volatile ahead of Result season this month. By looking at current structure, I feel market is going to surpass all time high soon on main indices & this rally will have time wise consolidation rather than price wise correction in short term. Any kind of such short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till medium term reverses.
Momentum indicators Daily KST went in to SELL but daily MACD is still in BUY supporting short term trend . Market will remain volatile ahead of state election results this month. One should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses. Close below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp correction till 9950-9800 levels on nifty & 32400-31800 levels on sensex in short term.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both went in to SELL & also closed below 20 WSMA. Its trading above 40 WEMA . Medium term Parameters are showing weakness but one need to watch out price confirmation to conclude medium term reversal till that One can expect market to trend towards higher level targets in medium term. Any kind of short term correction or consolidation in buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till it reverses.Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is UP.
Trend
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 35600-35800 |  | 33505 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 38200-38500 | | 29077 |
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 10900-11000 | | 10279 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 12000-12200 | | 8968 |