Market Outlook
TUESDAY, JANUARY 25, 2022
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 25.01.2022
Market closed in Positive territory at 57858.15 (+366.64)
CONCLUDING END OF WAVE-5 UPWARD BULL MARKET RALLY:
BEGINNING OF SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM CORRECTION AFTER END OF FIRST PAHSE OF BULL MARKET RALLY STARTED AFTER COVID PANDEMIC FALL: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
GLOBAL MARKETS ARE ENTERING IN CORRECTION MODE FROM MEDIUM TERM PERSPECTIVES:
BEGINNING OF WAVE-II CORRECTION AFTER SHARP BULL MARKET RISE SINCE MARCH2020:
ANY KIND OF PULL BACK IS SELLING AND EXITING OPPORTUNITY
Market closed in positive territory after steep fall from top of 18350 levels on nifty & 61475.15 levels on sensex. It looks like completion of 5 wave advance rally from bottom of March 2020 after covid pandemic fall. We are seeing sharp stocks specific corrections across the board & majority of sectors are in corrective mode in last 4-5 trading sessions. One should sell or exit in any kind of pull back rally & follow trend till it reverses.
Market at the verge of breaking crucial support of 16800 levels as per chart attached. It looks like beginning of wave-II correction after 2 year rally from bottom of March 2020. Retail Clients levels net long positions in stock futures are very high & FII built up fresh shorts in index futures. FII are also selling heavily in cash markets from last many months. All these indicate avoid fresh buying at current levels & book profit or exit long positions.
Bank nifty is outperforming at current levels. It’s still in trading range. By looking at market, it looks like pull back rally on bank nifty from recent bottom. 40160 is strong reversal/resistance zone for bank nifty for short term. One can expect lower levels targets of around 34000 levels. 42000 levels are medium term reversal levels, till it holds one can expect lower levels targets till 30400-29600 levels.
17000 & 17500 is strong support zone & Resistance zone levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series so far for expiry perspectives. Market will be volatile ahead of FED meet & Budget event in short term. Global Market including USA is entering in to corrective mode from medium term perspectives. We have seen first phase of Bull market after March 2020 across the Globe including India so any kind of Global Correction will also affect Indian Market as well.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in SELL supporting short term trend. The current upward rally of last 2 years was global driven so now correction will be also be global driven. One should closely watch out Global Markets from medium term perspectives. One should strictly follow trend till it reverses.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD are in SELL. Market is still closed below 20WESM but still above 40 WEMA. Majority of indicators are pointing medium term reversal.
Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is Down & Medium term Trend is Down
Trend
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 25.01.2022
Market closed in Positive territory at 57858.15 (+366.64)CONCLUDING END OF WAVE-5 UPWARD BULL MARKET RALLY:
BEGINNING OF SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM CORRECTION AFTER END OF FIRST PAHSE OF BULL MARKET RALLY STARTED AFTER COVID PANDEMIC FALL: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
GLOBAL MARKETS ARE ENTERING IN CORRECTION MODE FROM MEDIUM TERM PERSPECTIVES:
BEGINNING OF WAVE-II CORRECTION AFTER SHARP BULL MARKET RISE SINCE MARCH2020:
ANY KIND OF PULL BACK IS SELLING AND EXITING OPPORTUNITY
Market at the verge of breaking crucial support of 16800 levels as per chart attached. It looks like beginning of wave-II correction after 2 year rally from bottom of March 2020. Retail Clients levels net long positions in stock futures are very high & FII built up fresh shorts in index futures. FII are also selling heavily in cash markets from last many months. All these indicate avoid fresh buying at current levels & book profit or exit long positions.
Bank nifty is outperforming at current levels. It’s still in trading range. By looking at market, it looks like pull back rally on bank nifty from recent bottom. 40160 is strong reversal/resistance zone for bank nifty for short term. One can expect lower levels targets of around 34000 levels. 42000 levels are medium term reversal levels, till it holds one can expect lower levels targets till 30400-29600 levels.
17000 & 17500 is strong support zone & Resistance zone levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series so far for expiry perspectives. Market will be volatile ahead of FED meet & Budget event in short term. Global Market including USA is entering in to corrective mode from medium term perspectives. We have seen first phase of Bull market after March 2020 across the Globe including India so any kind of Global Correction will also affect Indian Market as well.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in SELL supporting short term trend. The current upward rally of last 2 years was global driven so now correction will be also be global driven. One should closely watch out Global Markets from medium term perspectives. One should strictly follow trend till it reverses.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD are in SELL. Market is still closed below 20WESM but still above 40 WEMA. Majority of indicators are pointing medium term reversal.Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is Down & Medium term Trend is Down
Trend
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 54500-53500 |  | 60045 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 47400-46100 | | 61500 |
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 16400-15900 | | 17950 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 14100-13800 | | 18350 |