Currencies
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Rupee
RUPEE :( USD/INR):
AT VERY CRUCIAL LEVELS:
BULLSH RUNNING TRIANGLE OR BEARISH WEDGE??:
BREAK OF THIS RANGE WILL LEAD TO DIRECTIONAL TREND IN SHORT TERM:
Rupee (USD/INR) closed @$ 61.93 on 19.11.2014. It made a high of $62.21 during day today. It’s trading at very crucial levels. It’s forming either wedge (Bearish) or running triangle (bullish) kind of pattern from wave count perspectives as per chart attached. Break of this range at either of side (i.e. Price confirmation) will finally confirm validity of one of this pattern.
$62.30 & $ 61.30 are crucial resistance & supports levels respectively of this range for short term. Break of either of these levels will finally confirm further trend with momentum for Rupee.
Daily& weekly momentum indicators are in BUY, indicating probability of these range to break on upside while recent rise from bottom didn’t look like impulsive structure indicating probability of wedge kind of structure with down side breakout possibility. Conclusively, it’s completely open to break this range either of side from wave count & momentum perspectives. Therefore, it’s advisable to wait for price confirmation to reach final concision.
Close & sustain above $62.30 (upper end of Range) will lead to trend towards $65 in short term & $68 in medium term.
On the other hand, Close below $61.30 will confirm down side break out & we will see lower levels targets till $59-$58.50 levels in short to medium term.
But from overall wave count perspectives, it still has final Wave-V up is pending & this consolidation looks part of Wave-IV only as per chart attached from medium to long term perspectives.
Close below $61.80 in this calendar year (i.e. on 31.12.2014) will raise doubt for this wave-V up view as per yearly chart of Rupee attached here with, Will review it further from medium to long perspectives if it’s violating these levels at the end of calendar year 2014 with other evidences at that time.
But for the time being, one should look for break of this narrow range at either of side for short term trend.
AT VERY CRUCIAL LEVELS:
BULLSH RUNNING TRIANGLE OR BEARISH WEDGE??:
BREAK OF THIS RANGE WILL LEAD TO DIRECTIONAL TREND IN SHORT TERM:
$62.30 & $ 61.30 are crucial resistance & supports levels respectively of this range for short term. Break of either of these levels will finally confirm further trend with momentum for Rupee.
Daily& weekly momentum indicators are in BUY, indicating probability of these range to break on upside while recent rise from bottom didn’t look like impulsive structure indicating probability of wedge kind of structure with down side breakout possibility. Conclusively, it’s completely open to break this range either of side from wave count & momentum perspectives. Therefore, it’s advisable to wait for price confirmation to reach final concision.
Close & sustain above $62.30 (upper end of Range) will lead to trend towards $65 in short term & $68 in medium term.
On the other hand, Close below $61.30 will confirm down side break out & we will see lower levels targets till $59-$58.50 levels in short to medium term.
But from overall wave count perspectives, it still has final Wave-V up is pending & this consolidation looks part of Wave-IV only as per chart attached from medium to long term perspectives.
Close below $61.80 in this calendar year (i.e. on 31.12.2014) will raise doubt for this wave-V up view as per yearly chart of Rupee attached here with, Will review it further from medium to long perspectives if it’s violating these levels at the end of calendar year 2014 with other evidences at that time.
But for the time being, one should look for break of this narrow range at either of side for short term trend.