Currencies
Friday, March 28, 2014
Rupee
RUPEE:
(USD/INR);
THE LAST HOPE: Medium term Reversal levels to watch out for:
Breaking range at either of side will finally conclude Medium to Long term Trend:
(Lower end $58.69 & upper end $63.32):
Momentum is indicating in advance of likely chance to breaking it on down side:
(USD/INR);
THE LAST HOPE: Medium term Reversal levels to watch out for:
Breaking range at either of side will finally conclude Medium to Long term Trend:
(Lower end $58.69 & upper end $63.32):
Momentum is indicating in advance of likely chance to breaking it on down side:
Indian Rupee Exchange Rate
It closed @$59.88 levels on 28.03.2014. It has broken & closed below crucial support & my Reversal levels of $60 today.
It failed to give break out on upside as expected on 24.01.2014.
It made a high of $63.32 levels on 27.01.2014 & started to fall slow but steady one sided towards lower levels.
In other words, Rupee is appreciating constantly in slow poison way after making this high.
It made a low of $59.68 levels on 28.03.2014 i.e. very close to 61.8% levels (i.e. - $59.40-$59.45) of this rally from bottom of $53.63 levels on 05.01.2013. Its important levels to watch out for any kind of short term halt.
Momentum indicators on daily, weekly & monthly charts all are in sell & it closed below my short term reversal levels of $60 & also very close to my medium term reversal levels of $58.69.
It has finally broken this narrow short term range of $63.50 to $60.80 of last 5 months on down side as per chart attached. It also closed below it from last 4 trading sessions. It not a good sign for bulls. It indicates probability of strong trend in going to emerge on down side (i.e. – Likely chance of Sharp Rupee appreciation) in Short term till it reverses.
Breaking this structure of Triangle ( ending diagonal) kind of pattern as per original assumption on down side is not a good sign unless is turns out to be wave-C of wave-IV & halt some where close to medium term reversal levels as per original view as per another chart attached. But right now none of the indication is in favor of Rupee deprecation side against USD. The last hope is medium term reversal levels to conclude FINALLY MEDIUM TERM TREND REVERSAL.
Conclusively, by looking momentum & Current structure, its being doubt on my medium term view of rupee depreciation with target of $68-$70 at current levels of market.
One should wait for range breakout at either of side (i.e-$58.69 or $63.32) to conclude Medium to Long term view on USD/INR at current levels of market.
Short term Trend remains down till Rupee trades below $61.50 levels .It has strong Resistance at $63.32 levels from medium term perspectives.
Breaking this range on down side or close below $58.69 levels will lead to sharp rupee appreciation for further lower levels targets of $56.60-$55.70 levels in immediate short term.
It made a low of $59.68 levels on 28.03.2014 i.e. very close to 61.8% levels (i.e. - $59.40-$59.45) of this rally from bottom of $53.63 levels on 05.01.2013. Its important levels to watch out for any kind of short term halt.
Momentum indicators on daily, weekly & monthly charts all are in sell & it closed below my short term reversal levels of $60 & also very close to my medium term reversal levels of $58.69.
It has finally broken this narrow short term range of $63.50 to $60.80 of last 5 months on down side as per chart attached. It also closed below it from last 4 trading sessions. It not a good sign for bulls. It indicates probability of strong trend in going to emerge on down side (i.e. – Likely chance of Sharp Rupee appreciation) in Short term till it reverses.
Breaking this structure of Triangle ( ending diagonal) kind of pattern as per original assumption on down side is not a good sign unless is turns out to be wave-C of wave-IV & halt some where close to medium term reversal levels as per original view as per another chart attached. But right now none of the indication is in favor of Rupee deprecation side against USD. The last hope is medium term reversal levels to conclude FINALLY MEDIUM TERM TREND REVERSAL.
Conclusively, by looking momentum & Current structure, its being doubt on my medium term view of rupee depreciation with target of $68-$70 at current levels of market.
One should wait for range breakout at either of side (i.e-$58.69 or $63.32) to conclude Medium to Long term view on USD/INR at current levels of market.
Short term Trend remains down till Rupee trades below $61.50 levels .It has strong Resistance at $63.32 levels from medium term perspectives.
Breaking this range on down side or close below $58.69 levels will lead to sharp rupee appreciation for further lower levels targets of $56.60-$55.70 levels in immediate short term.