Market Outlook
MODAY, April 04, 2022
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 04.04.2022
Market closed in Positive territory at 60,611.74 (+1335.05)
SHORT TERM SUPPORT/REVERSAL TO WATCHOUT FOR: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES
MEDIUM TERM REVERSAL LEVELS TO WATCHOUT FOR TO FINALLY CONCLUDE END OF CORRECTIVE PHASE:
WAIT FOR RANGE BREAKOUT TO GET MORE CLAITY:
Market open Gap UP above my short-term reversal levels of 17800 on nifty as mentioned earlier & managed to close above it at the end of trading session. Market has retraced more than my expectation in this pull back rally & crossed all my revised short term reversal levels. Now till we get any kind of fresh evidences, short term outlook for the market remains positive till it reverses & support levels holds as mentioned below. Market is at very critical juncture near medium-term reversal as well. So, one should be very stock specific at current levels & wait for range to break at either of side (i.e.- 17440-18350 levels on nifty) to get further clarity on overall structure of market.
As far as overall wave counts structure, till medium term reverses taking current rally still as corrective phase as wave-II correction till proven otherwise. I am closely watching range of (17440-18350) to get further clue as far as long-term structure of the market.
Bank nifty is also showing strength. It also managed to close above 61.8% retracement levels at the end of trading session as per chart attached which I was looking to conclude short term reversal. 36850 is short term reversal/support levels till it holds above it one can expect possibility pull back rally till 39900 levels. It has strong resistance around 39900 levels which is medium term reversal. One should watch out market behavior at these levels. Sustain above it will give us idea about further medium-term trend of the market, till it trades below it one can expect lower levels targets around 30400/29200 levels in medium term. Overall structure & Wave counts as well on Bank nifty is still looks as short term pull back rally till medium term reverses.
17500 & 18400 is strong support zone & Resistance zone levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series so far for expiry perspectives. Derivative Open Interest data is also suggesting bullish bet by FII as far as Index futures & Stock futures positions. It’s also supporting short term positive view till it’s proven otherwise.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in BUY supporting short term trend. Therefore, one should wait for confirmation of short-term reversal to finally concludes trend reversal or end of pullback rally. On the other hand, as market is very close to medium term reversal, one should be stock specific not be too much aggressive at current levels but follow trend till it reverses. Break of range at either of side ( 17440-18350) will get more clarify & confidence about overall structure of market trend.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY came in to BUY but Weekly MACD is still in SELL. Market closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. One should watch out for price Reversal to finally conclude Medium term Reversal
Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is Down
Trend
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 04.04.2022
Market closed in Positive territory at 60,611.74 (+1335.05)SHORT TERM SUPPORT/REVERSAL TO WATCHOUT FOR: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES
MEDIUM TERM REVERSAL LEVELS TO WATCHOUT FOR TO FINALLY CONCLUDE END OF CORRECTIVE PHASE:
WAIT FOR RANGE BREAKOUT TO GET MORE CLAITY:
As far as overall wave counts structure, till medium term reverses taking current rally still as corrective phase as wave-II correction till proven otherwise. I am closely watching range of (17440-18350) to get further clue as far as long-term structure of the market.
Bank nifty is also showing strength. It also managed to close above 61.8% retracement levels at the end of trading session as per chart attached which I was looking to conclude short term reversal. 36850 is short term reversal/support levels till it holds above it one can expect possibility pull back rally till 39900 levels. It has strong resistance around 39900 levels which is medium term reversal. One should watch out market behavior at these levels. Sustain above it will give us idea about further medium-term trend of the market, till it trades below it one can expect lower levels targets around 30400/29200 levels in medium term. Overall structure & Wave counts as well on Bank nifty is still looks as short term pull back rally till medium term reverses.
17500 & 18400 is strong support zone & Resistance zone levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series so far for expiry perspectives. Derivative Open Interest data is also suggesting bullish bet by FII as far as Index futures & Stock futures positions. It’s also supporting short term positive view till it’s proven otherwise.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in BUY supporting short term trend. Therefore, one should wait for confirmation of short-term reversal to finally concludes trend reversal or end of pullback rally. On the other hand, as market is very close to medium term reversal, one should be stock specific not be too much aggressive at current levels but follow trend till it reverses. Break of range at either of side ( 17440-18350) will get more clarify & confidence about overall structure of market trend.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY came in to BUY but Weekly MACD is still in SELL. Market closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. One should watch out for price Reversal to finally conclude Medium term ReversalConclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is Down
Trend
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 61476 |  | 58416 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 52200-48500 |  | 61476 |
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 18350 | | 17440 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 15700-14300 | | 18350 |