Market Outlook
TUESDAY, APRIL 13, 2021
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 13.04.2021
Market closed in positive territory at 48544.06 (+ 660.68)
LOWER END OF RANGE; AT VERY CRUCIAL SUPPORT LEVELS: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
BANK NIFTY WILL BE KEY TO WATCHOUT FOR SHORT TERM TREND
FINAL PUSH TOWARDS HIGHER LEVELS TARGETS IN SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES
SHARP TREND CAN POSSIBLE, ONCE IT BREAK FROM SHORT TERM CONSOLIDATION RANGE:
STILL LOOKS LIKE “W ” SHAPE RECOVERY OR PULL BACK RALLY LIKE 1998-2003 STRUCTURE OF MARKET:
MISSING WAVE- V OF BULL MARKET:
BE STOCK SPECIFIC AND NOT TO BE CARRIED AWAY WITH TOO MUCH LEVERAGE IN THIS EUPH ORIC PHASE OF MARKET:
Market once again tested lower end of range of this 8 week consolidation. It made a low of 14248 levels on nifty & 47693 levels sensex. It further sharply bounced back from lower levels at the end of trading session. It looks like ending diagonal kind of end of short term correction pattern as per chart attached. One can expect market to trend higher & possibility of these range to break on upside till this lower end of support/Reversal levels holds. BANK NIFTY will be key to watch out in short term for further confirmation of rally in short term. One can expect market to rally towards higher levels as mentioned below in short to medium term till these support holds in near term. One should keep stock specific approach in BUYING & keep profit booking at regular intervals & follow trend till it reverses.
It looks like last push of extended rally started from March 2020 for higher levels targets from overall wave counts perspectives as per chart attached. One can expect market to trend towards higher levels targets in short to medium term till it reverses.
It still looks like “W” shape recovery or rally like 1998-2003 structure. And it’s missing Wave-V of higher degree from wave count perspectives. So one can’t rule out sharp correction, once this rally completes, towards further lower levels targets towards 2019 lows or retracement of entire rally from March 2019 lows. So one should be very stock specific in this phase of market.
BANK NIFTY remained under performer & remained in correction mode in this consolidation phase of market. It has corrected around 20% in this 8 weeks. It sharply reversed near from medium term support levels. 30500 is crucial support zone for bank nifty till it holds, one can expect higher levels target1-34000 & target2-36500 levels in short term. It looks like final last leg up for bank nifty of rally started from March 2020 from overall wave counts perspectives as per chart attached. 29600 levels is strong support on bank nifty for medium term perspectives on bank nifty. One should closely watch out Bank nifty in near term for further confirmation of rally & break out of range on upside.
14000- 15000 is strong support zone & Resistance zone levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series so far based on option open interest data.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD are in SELL indicating volatile trend for short term. Close & sustain below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp fall towards 46000 levels on sensex & 13600 levels on nifty in short term. One should be stock specific & not to be carried away with too much leverage in this euphoric phase of market & follow trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both went in to SELL. Market is still closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. One should wait for price reversal to finally conclude medium term reversal.
Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is UP
Trend
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 13.04.2021
Market closed in positive territory at 48544.06 (+ 660.68)LOWER END OF RANGE; AT VERY CRUCIAL SUPPORT LEVELS: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
BANK NIFTY WILL BE KEY TO WATCHOUT FOR SHORT TERM TREND
FINAL PUSH TOWARDS HIGHER LEVELS TARGETS IN SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES
SHARP TREND CAN POSSIBLE, ONCE IT BREAK FROM SHORT TERM CONSOLIDATION RANGE:
STILL LOOKS LIKE “W ” SHAPE RECOVERY OR PULL BACK RALLY LIKE 1998-2003 STRUCTURE OF MARKET:
MISSING WAVE- V OF BULL MARKET:
BE STOCK SPECIFIC AND NOT TO BE CARRIED AWAY WITH TOO MUCH LEVERAGE IN THIS EUPH ORIC PHASE OF MARKET:
It looks like last push of extended rally started from March 2020 for higher levels targets from overall wave counts perspectives as per chart attached. One can expect market to trend towards higher levels targets in short to medium term till it reverses.
It still looks like “W” shape recovery or rally like 1998-2003 structure. And it’s missing Wave-V of higher degree from wave count perspectives. So one can’t rule out sharp correction, once this rally completes, towards further lower levels targets towards 2019 lows or retracement of entire rally from March 2019 lows. So one should be very stock specific in this phase of market.
BANK NIFTY remained under performer & remained in correction mode in this consolidation phase of market. It has corrected around 20% in this 8 weeks. It sharply reversed near from medium term support levels. 30500 is crucial support zone for bank nifty till it holds, one can expect higher levels target1-34000 & target2-36500 levels in short term. It looks like final last leg up for bank nifty of rally started from March 2020 from overall wave counts perspectives as per chart attached. 29600 levels is strong support on bank nifty for medium term perspectives on bank nifty. One should closely watch out Bank nifty in near term for further confirmation of rally & break out of range on upside.
14000- 15000 is strong support zone & Resistance zone levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series so far based on option open interest data.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD are in SELL indicating volatile trend for short term. Close & sustain below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp fall towards 46000 levels on sensex & 13600 levels on nifty in short term. One should be stock specific & not to be carried away with too much leverage in this euphoric phase of market & follow trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both went in to SELL. Market is still closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. One should wait for price reversal to finally conclude medium term reversal.Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is UP
Trend
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 52400-53500 |  | 47693 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 54500-55200 | | 46160 |
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 15450-15850 | | 14248 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 16100-16200 | | 13596 |