Market Outlook
FRIDAY, APRIL 30, 2021
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 30.04.2021
Market closed in negative territory at 48782.36 (- 983.58)
SHORT TERM REVERSAL LEVELS TO WATCHOUT FOR SUSTAINABILITY OF RECENT RALLY FROM BOTTOM: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
BANK NIFTY WILL BE KEY TO WATCHOUT FOR SHORT TERM TREND
STILL LOOKS LIKE “W ” SHAPE RECOVERY OR PULL BACK RALLY LIKE 1998-2003 STRUCTURE OF MARKET:
MISSING WAVE- V OF BULL MARKET:
BE STOCK SPECIFIC AND NOT TO BE CARRIED AWAY WITH TOO MUCH LEVERAGE IN THIS EUPH ORIC PHASE OF MARKET:
Market sharply reversed from lower end of support levels & broken out of ending diagonal pattern in expiry week as expected & surge till upper end of range near break out levels. It made a high of 15044.35 levels on nifty & 50,375.77 levels on sensex so far. It witnessed profit booking from these levels ahead of weekends. One should closely watch out short term reversal/ support levels for sustainability of recent rally from bottom. One should keep stock specific approach & keep profit booking at regular intervals & follow trend till it reverses.
It looks like last push of extended rally started from March 2020 for higher levels targets from overall wave counts perspectives as per chart attached. One can expect market to trend towards higher levels targets in short to medium term till it reverses.
It still looks like “W” shape recovery or rally like 1998-2003 structure. And it’s missing Wave-V of higher degree from wave count perspectives. So one can’t rule out sharp correction, once this rally completes, towards further lower levels targets towards 2019 lows or retracement of entire rally from March 2019 lows. So one should be very stock specific in this phase of market.
BANK NIFTY also sharply reversed from recent bottom in expiry week as expected. Its key indices to watch out for short term about sustainability of rally. It made a high of 34287 levels so far in this pull back rally from recent bottom. 32140 is crucial short term support to watch out for, till it holds one can expect higher levels targets till tgt1-36500 & tgt2-37700 levels in short term. It looks like final last leg up for bank nifty of rally started from March 2020 from overall wave counts perspectives as per chart attached. 30400 levels is strong support on bank nifty for medium term perspectives on bank nifty. Its key indices to watch out for sustainably of short term trend.
14000- 15000 is strong support zone & Resistance zone levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series so far based on option open interest data. Stock future data of clients is net buying side is on very high side giving some warning sign so one should be less leverage at current levels.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in BUY supporting short term trend. Close & sustain below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp fall towards 47200-46000 levels on sensex & 14150-13600 levels on nifty in short term. One should be stock specific & not to be carried away with too much leverage in this euphoric phase of market & follow trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both went in to SELL. Market is still closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. One should wait for price reversal to finally conclude medium term reversal.
Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is UP
Trend
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 30.04.2021
Market closed in negative territory at 48782.36 (- 983.58)SHORT TERM REVERSAL LEVELS TO WATCHOUT FOR SUSTAINABILITY OF RECENT RALLY FROM BOTTOM: TRAIL TILL IT REVERSES:
BANK NIFTY WILL BE KEY TO WATCHOUT FOR SHORT TERM TREND
STILL LOOKS LIKE “W ” SHAPE RECOVERY OR PULL BACK RALLY LIKE 1998-2003 STRUCTURE OF MARKET:
MISSING WAVE- V OF BULL MARKET:
BE STOCK SPECIFIC AND NOT TO BE CARRIED AWAY WITH TOO MUCH LEVERAGE IN THIS EUPH ORIC PHASE OF MARKET:
It looks like last push of extended rally started from March 2020 for higher levels targets from overall wave counts perspectives as per chart attached. One can expect market to trend towards higher levels targets in short to medium term till it reverses.
It still looks like “W” shape recovery or rally like 1998-2003 structure. And it’s missing Wave-V of higher degree from wave count perspectives. So one can’t rule out sharp correction, once this rally completes, towards further lower levels targets towards 2019 lows or retracement of entire rally from March 2019 lows. So one should be very stock specific in this phase of market.
BANK NIFTY also sharply reversed from recent bottom in expiry week as expected. Its key indices to watch out for short term about sustainability of rally. It made a high of 34287 levels so far in this pull back rally from recent bottom. 32140 is crucial short term support to watch out for, till it holds one can expect higher levels targets till tgt1-36500 & tgt2-37700 levels in short term. It looks like final last leg up for bank nifty of rally started from March 2020 from overall wave counts perspectives as per chart attached. 30400 levels is strong support on bank nifty for medium term perspectives on bank nifty. Its key indices to watch out for sustainably of short term trend.
14000- 15000 is strong support zone & Resistance zone levels respectively based on option open interest data for current month series so far based on option open interest data. Stock future data of clients is net buying side is on very high side giving some warning sign so one should be less leverage at current levels.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in BUY supporting short term trend. Close & sustain below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp fall towards 47200-46000 levels on sensex & 14150-13600 levels on nifty in short term. One should be stock specific & not to be carried away with too much leverage in this euphoric phase of market & follow trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both went in to SELL. Market is still closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. One should wait for price reversal to finally conclude medium term reversal.Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is UP
Trend
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 52400-53500 |  | 48265 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 54500-55200 | | 47200 |
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 15450-15850 | | 14460 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 16100-16200 | | 14150 |