Market Outlook
FRIAY, AUGUST 14, 2020
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 14.08.2020
Market closed in negative territory at 37,877.34 (- 433.15)
TRADING IN RANGE: LOWER END OF RANGE TO WATCH OUT FOR TO FINALLY CONCLUDE END OF PULL BACK RALLY:
LOOKS LIKE WAVE-IV CONSOLIDATION TILL IT REVERSES:
BREAK OF RANGE WILL BE KEY TO CONCLUDE SHORT TERM TREND REVERSAL:
BANK NIFTY IS CRUCIAL TO WATCHOUT FOR SHORT TERM TREND:
BE STOCK SPECIFIC IN THIS PHASE OF MARKET:
REVISING MEDIUM TERM REVERSAL LEVELS, AS LOOKS LIKE “ W ” SHAPE RECOVERY OR PULL BACK RALLY:
STILL LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL BEAR MARKET RALLY TILL MEDIUM TERM REVERSES:
Market is consolidating in range 11350-10900 levels from last couple of trading session. It made a high of 11373.60 levels & low of 10882.25 levels in short term. One should closely watch out lower end of range to finally conclude short term trend reversal. Break of this range at either of side will lead to sharp trend in short term. One should look to BUY stock specific in these consolidation till short term reverses. It looks like BANK NIFTY will be once again crucial to watch out in short term. It will be key dark horse to extend rally further for higher levels targets as mentioned below in short term. It will be in driving sheet & lead the rally in short term. Trader should follow trend till it reverses.
It still looks like wave- IV Consolidation & Wave-V Up is pending till short term reverses from short term wave count perspectives. Trader should book profit at regular intervals.
BANK NIFTY is underperforming at current levels of market. It looks like wave-iv correction on bank nifty till it reverses. It made a low of 21025 levels this week. One can BUY Bank nifty for trading perspectives in short term. It can extend in short term for higher levels target1-23500 & further above target2-24800 levels in short term. Outlook for Bank nifty will be positive till it trades above 21000 levels in short term. 27000 levels is medium term reversal levels for Bank nifty, till it holds one can expect lower levels targets till 17000/16000 levels in medium term.
11000 & 11500 levels is crucial support & Resistance levels range respectively based on option open interest data for expiry perspectives for current month series. I am also revising medium term reversal levels for overall trend of the market as below & it still looks like typical Bear Market rally till medium term reverses. And so far it’s turning out to be “W” shape recovery or pullback rally from medium term perspectives. It requires further more confirmation for finally conclude medium term reversal. I will periodically review for the same.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in SELL indicating volatile trend for short term. One should be stock specific & follow trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses in short term. Close below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp fall towards 10600/10550 levels on nifty & 35870 levels on sensex is short term. One should periodically book profit & cautiously bullish at higher levels.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both are in BUY. Market is closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. Majority of medium term indicators are in BUY but One should wait for price reversal to finally conclude medium term reversal.
Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is DOWN.
Trend
Market Outlook (Closing) as on 14.08.2020
Market closed in negative territory at 37,877.34 (- 433.15)TRADING IN RANGE: LOWER END OF RANGE TO WATCH OUT FOR TO FINALLY CONCLUDE END OF PULL BACK RALLY:
LOOKS LIKE WAVE-IV CONSOLIDATION TILL IT REVERSES:
BREAK OF RANGE WILL BE KEY TO CONCLUDE SHORT TERM TREND REVERSAL:
BANK NIFTY IS CRUCIAL TO WATCHOUT FOR SHORT TERM TREND:
BE STOCK SPECIFIC IN THIS PHASE OF MARKET:
REVISING MEDIUM TERM REVERSAL LEVELS, AS LOOKS LIKE “ W ” SHAPE RECOVERY OR PULL BACK RALLY:
STILL LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL BEAR MARKET RALLY TILL MEDIUM TERM REVERSES:
It still looks like wave- IV Consolidation & Wave-V Up is pending till short term reverses from short term wave count perspectives. Trader should book profit at regular intervals.
BANK NIFTY is underperforming at current levels of market. It looks like wave-iv correction on bank nifty till it reverses. It made a low of 21025 levels this week. One can BUY Bank nifty for trading perspectives in short term. It can extend in short term for higher levels target1-23500 & further above target2-24800 levels in short term. Outlook for Bank nifty will be positive till it trades above 21000 levels in short term. 27000 levels is medium term reversal levels for Bank nifty, till it holds one can expect lower levels targets till 17000/16000 levels in medium term.
11000 & 11500 levels is crucial support & Resistance levels range respectively based on option open interest data for expiry perspectives for current month series. I am also revising medium term reversal levels for overall trend of the market as below & it still looks like typical Bear Market rally till medium term reverses. And so far it’s turning out to be “W” shape recovery or pullback rally from medium term perspectives. It requires further more confirmation for finally conclude medium term reversal. I will periodically review for the same.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & Daily MACD both are in SELL indicating volatile trend for short term. One should be stock specific & follow trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses in short term. Close below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp fall towards 10600/10550 levels on nifty & 35870 levels on sensex is short term. One should periodically book profit & cautiously bullish at higher levels.
Momentum Perspective:
Weekly KST & WEEKLY MACD both are in BUY. Market is closed above 20WESM & 40 WEMA. Majority of medium term indicators are in BUY but One should wait for price reversal to finally conclude medium term reversal.Conclusion:
Short Term Trend is UP & Medium term Trend is DOWN.
Trend
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 38800-39700 |  | 36911 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 32350-29968-27500 |  | 39500 |
| Short Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 11500-11600 | | 10882 |
| Medium Term : | Trend | Reversal |
| 9500-8800-8000 | | 11600 |